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Articles tagged with: Nate Silver

The Republican Postmodern Turn, Silicon Valley, and California’s Political Transformation

By Martin W. Lewis | November 12, 2012 | 2 Comments

The New York Times map of county-level changes in the U.S. presidential vote from 2008 to 2012 shows almost every county in California shifting red in the Republican direction. In most counties, the change was minor. Barack Obama still took California by almost 60 percent of the vote, a figure exceeded (among states) only by Hawaii (70.6%), Vermont (67%), Rhode …

Preliminary Observations on the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

By Martin W. Lewis | November 8, 2012 | 11 Comments

Several pundits have claimed that the second major victor in yesterday’s U.S. presidential election was statistician Nate Silver, who correctly picked the winner in every state, thereby seemingly demonstrating the power of Bayesian analysis—when done correctly. In scrutinizing Silver’s final pre-election map, I can find only a few minor instances in which was not fully on-target (Iowa, for example, was …

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